Friday, April 01, 2011

March Referrals thru June 15th

Hi everyone,

Woke to snow covered ground and it is still coming down heavily. Wish that were an April Fools joke. But it's not. Even the kids are sick of it. Sweetpea is walking around grumbling in her sleepy voice, "when will it stop? when will it stop?".

In good news this morning, the cut off according to 2 european agencies is the 15th. Some expect referrals to land today.

 The following information is based on information gathered at Rumor Queen:

According to the new poll on RQ, the number of RQ families getting referrals in this batch is 56. So at least that seems like a slight improvement. But if you want to compare apples to apples, the number of RQ families getting referrals according to the OLD poll is 42 so that would indicate there is no improvement.

Moving forward, here is how batches in the mid-50's looks like with new poll stats - (and remember the number of RQ families receiving referrals is just a slice of the population. Those of us obsessively crunching numbers use her numbers as an accurate picture of how big or small any given set of referrals is and then we use her numbers to project future months.)

Late April: thru the 21st gives us 39 families referred but the 22nd has 24 people which would bring the number to 63. So I'd say the NEXT batch of referrals will actually make more of a statement.

So we'll have two scenarios for the following months. The first number will represent what may happen if April's batch is bad and the second number will represent what could happen if april's number is good.
Late May:  6/27 or 6/29
Late June:   7/4 or 7/6
Late July:  7/14 or 7/22
Late August: 7/31 or 8/3

So it seems that when 6/22 is included is our biggest tell in this crazy game of poker.

3 comments: said...

fingers crossed for you!

Meg said...

although it is getting so close I'm sure it has never seemed farther away.......fingers crossed it is the best case scenario and you'll be crazy with packing lists soon :)

Sherri said...

this is the first time for me visiting your blog, and I wanted to thank you for the clear understanding from the numbers of RQ....I get so confused on that number system, but you made it sound so simple. Fingers crossed with your upcoming referral.
LID 08-08-06